Is it Time for Regime Change in Iran — and, if so, How Best to do it?
Here are some options:
1. Complete cutoff of all trade between USA and Iran (like the Embargo with Cuba). Of particular significance would be parts for oil field replacements. If Iran’s oil revenues are cut in half, because of inability to pump, the Regime would be weaker, and more likely to fall.
If the priviledged classes in Iran find that they have no easy access to American made pharmaceuticals, they might re-think whether having Ahmadinejad as their leader is really such a great idea.
If the Revolutionary Guard and the Army found that they had no easy access to integrated circuits made in USA, they might wonder how long they could protect themselves from their neighbors. Same with filters, and purification systems, and chemicals of military usefulness.
2. The deportation of all non-US-citizen Iranians from USA. This would include the Iranian Ambassador and all Iranian delegations to the World Bank, the UN, or any other organization. They are all Persona Non Grata — 10 days to get on a plane and be gone from US soil.
3. All bank accounts linked to any terror-related organization in Iran frozen and impounded.
4. All electronic or telephonic communications originating in Iran and coming to the USA monitored.
5. All Iranian flagged vessels kept out of US waters, and not qualified to be insured by US based companies.
6. All US citizens warned that their passports no longer are valid for travel to or from Iran.
7. All businesses in USA with ties to Iran monitored and scrutinized.
8. Strong diplomatic efforts to nations friendly to USA to adopt similar measures.
9. Loans to the Israeli Air Force of tactical ordnance and platforms required to deliver it, plus spare parts, plus upgraded black boxes to make airborne platforms more stealthy and better able to precisely release satellite guided glide bombs, including bunker busters.
10. Efforts by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve and CIA, and State Department to de-stabilize Iranian currency on world markets thereby causing financial panic and ruin among many persons in Irans privileged classes.
11. Supply to Israel of non-nuclear but very powerful electro-motive pulse weapons to cause Iran to re-enter the 12th century.
12. Supply to Israel of carbon fibre weapons to eliminate power transmission facilities in Iran and help it re-enter the 12th century.
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HDH 29th January 2010
1. We have more to lose in loss of access to oil than they have to lose to loss of oil revenues. They can always switch to Chinese and other Asian and African and Eastern European markets. I doubt very much we could institute a GLOBAL embargo. (Which is why we should have permanently reduced our oil consumption THIRTY years ago, but I digress.)
2. Might at least get their attention. Still don’t think it would effect regime change.
3. A very good idea. I don’t know if you can "impound" bank accounts, but freezing those we have control over might help.
4. Probably already in place.
5. A possibility…
6. Also, a possibility.
7. Probably already in place.
8. This would make the above even more effective.
9. Already in place.
10. Interesting, but the Iranian privileged class, like that of most nations, are heavily invested in U.S. dollars, not their own currency.
11. and 12. Present humanitarian problems. Limiting such strikes to military facilities is a better option, but is either technology viable yet?
And, besides all this, you need to define "regime change" and then ask yourself whether it would even WORK in getting rid of a nuclear threat. Would you be happy with the Supreme Islamic Council and Ahmadinejad stepping aside? Would that be "regime change"? What if they did step aside, but simply put identical figures in their place? Would that accomplish anything?
Would you have a mass insurrection in the streets? Isn’t it possible that would cause the nuclear material to fall into the hands of the most heavily armed group? Isn’t it possible that such a group would NOT be recognized by Iranians as a legitimate government? But wouldn’t we be forced to deal with it anyway, since it controlled those assets?
Would you have a surgical strike killing the Supreme Islamic Council and Ahmadinejad? Wouldn’t that just universally turn the Iranian people against us, make the killed individuals martyrs, and make dealing with Iran even more difficult?
Buzz Kill 29th January 2010
By the Iranian people.
samgoodman233 29th January 2010
Excessive force?
iamct01 29th January 2010
We could air strike him and if he does not take our loans within 10 years we can invade. Oh wait I thought we were talking about Iraq, never mind.
kjdsfvbu 29th January 2010
trough the sheer will of the Iranian people wanting democracy not trough the means achieved in Iraq which was a disaster.